Climate mitigation by energy and material substitution of wood products has an expiry date

The expected increased share of renewables due to the ongoing energy transition may reduce estimated potential mitigation effect wood. Here, we climate change for five scenarios wood products use in Europe applying dynamic substitution factors embracing a future mix with an increasing accordance emission reductions necessary achieve Paris Agreement targets. Our innovative modelling approach also included elimination eternal recycling loops, inclusion more realistic cascading scenarios, and adoption marginal (ceteris paribus) approach. Results show that derived from material is 33% lower 2030 than previously predicted, even 96% 2100, showing its expiry date by end century. Nevertheless, product use, addition forests, represent 3.3% European reduction targets 2030.